Kaige: There is a chance for the semiconductor cycle to reach its peak in 2025.
2024-11-18 20:31
Zhitongcaijing
Looking ahead to the semiconductor industry in 2025, KGI suggests that investors should choose advanced manufacturing companies related to AI demand growth, specification upgrades, market share expansion, and so on as their top investment choices. Investors are advised to be cautious about second-tier wafer foundries with oversupply and individual stocks with high valuations.
For the outlook of the semiconductor industry in 2025, KGI has put forward three key points. First, there is a chance for the semiconductor cycle to reach its peak in 2025 and maintain the historical pattern of "two years of expansion, two years of contraction" over the past decade. Secondly, in this cycle, semiconductor revenue growth will surpass capital expenditures, meaning that semiconductor companies will have more room to increase their dividend payout ratios. Lastly, it is important to note that there is tight supply only in advanced processes, with TSMC benefiting from market share expansion and leading the industry in advanced processes. In contrast, the mature process sector is facing oversupply due to China's wafer fabs aggressively expanding production, resulting in an L-shaped recovery.
KGI today released its latest analysis of the Chinese and Taiwanese market trends, pointing out that the semiconductor industry in Taiwan reached a historic high in October with revenues of NT$70 billion, a 23% year-on-year increase. TSMC continued to be the main contributor, while revenues of testing interfaces, wafer foundries, and semiconductor equipment suppliers outperformed other secondary industries. KGI stated that wafer foundries continued to outperform IC design firms and OSATs, expecting AI to remain the main driver of the semiconductor industry's upward cycle in 2025. TSMC continued to widen the gap with all competitors, while non-AI applications showed moderate growth with revenue growth relying on specification upgrades.
In addition, observing the third quarter financial reports, AMD's data center revenue surpassed Intel for the first time, indicating that TSMC's assistance has helped expand its market share in AI chips and server CPUs. KGI estimated that AMD's CPU market share is expected to increase to 40% by the end of 2024. Increasing TSMC's outsourcing proportion will help Intel maintain its market share in PC CPUs, but the gap between Intel's wafer foundries and TSMC is widening, with no major threat to TSMC's advanced processes seen yet.
Looking ahead to the semiconductor industry in 2025, KGI recommends investing in advanced process-related major players with increasing AI demand, specification upgrades, and market share expansion. They also caution investors to be conservative towards secondary wafer foundries facing oversupply and stocks with high valuations.