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Pulay: Trump's tariff policy and planning for the US economy have a significant impact on Japanese stocks.
Daniel Hurley stated that the major focus for the Japanese stock market at the end of 2024 and beginning of 2025 will be on Trump's policies and plans for the US economy, particularly his plans regarding tariffs and relationships with trade partners, especially China.
Daniel Hurley, global stock portfolio expert at Purisai, stated that by the end of 2024 to early 2025, the main focus of the Japanese stock market will be on Trump's policies and his plans for the US economy, especially his plans regarding tariffs and relationships with trading partners (especially China). These factors, along with Federal Reserve policies, will have a significant impact on global trade, currencies, and Japanese exports. Corporate governance reforms are expected to continue to progress, and progress in the fourth quarter should be monitored. Hurley expressed that it is currently difficult to assess President Trump's policies, but his campaign focused on immigration and tariffs. For open, export-driven economies like Japan, tariffs are clearly the biggest risk. However, Japan has close ties with the US, especially with President Trump, as the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was the first foreign leader to meet with Trump during his first term. The Bank of Japan closely monitors inflation, especially wage inflation, while cautiously tightening its monetary policy. The Bank of Japan will remain patient and continue to tighten policy based on data. This is expected to continue to support the Japanese stock market; a relatively accommodative monetary policy will keep interest rates low and keep the yen relatively weak (benefiting exporters). With inflation appearing in Japan for the first time in 35 years and investments and consumption restarting, this is expected to provide strong support to the economy. The health of the US economy will be a key factor affecting the outlook for the yen, and investors should closely monitor macro data in the US to judge the future trend of the yen. Hurley believes that a strong US economy and a weak currency will provide support for exporters, as well as the overall Japanese economy and market. As companies generate higher profits and free cash flow, they will continue to face pressure in corporate governance reforms and shareholder returns, providing additional momentum.
Zhang Lei of Hillhouse Capital: Looking back in 20 years, this period is giving birth to the greatest companies and entrepreneurs.
Pu Laishi: There is still a lot of uncertainty about the extent of the final interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.