Pu Laishi: There is still a lot of uncertainty about the extent of the final interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
2024-11-20 19:37
Zhitongcaijing
The Fed is likely to further lower interest rates, which may alleviate interest rate pressure, but this will take time and the ultimate extent of the rate cut still remains highly uncertain.
Tim Murray, a capital market strategist at Pruvest Multi-Asset Department, commented on the potential impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on the US economic outlook, stating that although the Fed's previous rate hike cycle was one of the fastest ever, the US economy seems to have avoided a recession. The Fed is likely to further cut interest rates, which could alleviate interest rate pressures, but this will take time, and the extent of the rate cut remains uncertain. In addition, Fed rate cuts may affect a wide range of financing activities, but the real estate market often directly reflects the stimulus of lower interest rates on the economy. Therefore, investors should adjust their expectations for the economic impact of Fed rate cuts in 2025.
Investors are now focusing on the pace of economic growth in 2025. The market is optimistic about the acceleration of economic growth in 2025, partly because expectations that Fed rate cuts will stimulate economic activity and consumer spending as interest costs decrease. However, so far, there has only been a slight improvement in interest costs for US consumers. Although rates for credit cards and new car loans have decreased, they are only about 50 basis points lower than their peak levels.
Meanwhile, fixed mortgage rates are about 135 basis points lower than their peak levels. Mortgage rates may be the most important indicator to watch, as the real estate market has a significant impact on US economic activity. As of October 22nd, the rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 6.4%, much higher than the average rate for mortgages signed in the past (which is calculated as 3.9% on a weighted average basis). This means that many homeowners may not be willing to sell their properties, as purchasing another property would require them to pay a higher mortgage rate.