Schroder Investment's Top 10 Investment Outlook for 2025 is optimistic about the US dollar and US stocks.
2024-11-26 17:06
Zhitongcaijing
Recently, Schroder Investment Management released its top ten investment outlook for 2025.
Recently, Schroders Global Investment released its top ten investment outlook for 2025. These ten investments include: in the stock category, they are optimistic about overall U.S. stocks (such as S&P 500 equal weight index) and emerging markets/Asian stocks; in the bond category, Schroders Global is bullish on European government bonds, emerging market local currency bonds, 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds; they also favor gold, the U.S. dollar, Asian credit, and private market assets, but Schroders Global has a pessimistic view on oil.
Keiko Konishi, Schroders Global Investment's head, stated that with strong performance in the second half of 2024, the outlook for U.S. economic growth remains optimistic, particularly in terms of consumer and labor markets. Concerns about U.S. consumer confidence once raised doubts about the local economy, but recent data has eased these concerns. U.S. consumer savings remain at nearly $20 trillion, and strong employment data is expected to continue supporting consumer spending. Even though inflation remains under control and the market has digested more aggressive monetary policy stances, uncertainties still exist regarding the Fed's schedule and extent of rate cuts. Nevertheless, as the U.S. yield curve normalizes and enters a period of loose monetary policy, the global stock market outlook remains positive.
She noted that overall inflation in the U.S. has fallen below 3% and is believed to be experiencing an "economic soft landing," thus preferring the overall U.S. stock market. While economic and profit growth in Europe is slowing down, the opposite is happening in emerging markets and Asia, providing attractive entry opportunities for these two regions.
Regarding Europe, Keiko Konishi believes that the European Central Bank has become "data-dependent" after three rate cuts this year. With the arrival of 2025, it is expected that the eurozone will continue to lower interest rates to combat weak economic growth, while inflation is expected to remain under control.
She also prefers European government bonds, Asian credit, and emerging market local currency bonds. European government bonds are expected to benefit from the rate cut cycle, and their diversification role makes this asset class attractive.
In Asia, strong economic growth, especially in China, India, and Indonesia, may drive performance in Asian credit, with expected credit spreads being more attractive than U.S. and European bonds. Additionally, the high yields of many emerging market local currency bonds are highly attractive, potentially bringing significant returns in 2025.
In recent years, private market assets have become increasingly important to global and Asian investors, and Keiko Konishi supports this trend. She points out the benefits of including such assets in diversified investment portfolios, one major feature being their low correlation with other asset classes. Furthermore, private equity (PE) credit spreads are higher than non-investment grade bonds.