Schroder Investment: Expectation of global market resilience continuing to provide support for overall risk asset categories.
2024-11-27 11:02
Zhitongcaijing
With the strong performance in the second half of 2024, the outlook for US economic growth appears to remain optimistic, especially in terms of consumption and labor market.
Recently, Schroders global investment published an article stating that looking ahead to 2025, the global investment market is expected to continue to show resilience and provide support for overall risk assets, especially US stocks, with the local overall stock market performance expected to be positive. Keiko Kondo, the head of diversified asset investments in Schroders' global investment in Asia, proposed in the company's top 10 investment market predictions for 2025 that adopting a diversified investment strategy, including considering the allocation of Asian credit and private assets, is expected to provide support for investors seeking potential returns in the current complex environment.
The economic growth prospects in the US are optimistic, while the eurozone is expected to continue reducing interest rates
Following a strong performance in the second half of 2024, the economic growth prospects in the US seem to remain optimistic, especially in terms of consumption and the labor market. Although concerns about US consumer confidence have raised doubts about the local economy in the past, recent data has alleviated these concerns. US consumer savings remain high at nearly $20 trillion, and strong employment data is expected to continue to support consumer spending.
Keiko Kondo stated that despite controlled inflation and the market digesting more aggressive monetary policy stances, there is still uncertainty about the timing and extent of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Nevertheless, with the normalization of US yield curves and entering a loose policy cycle, the outlook for global stock markets still appears positive.
As for Europe, Keiko Kondo believes that the European Central Bank has become "data-dependent" after cutting rates three times this year. Recent economic data shows a decline in new factory orders in Germany in August, further exacerbating concerns about the long-term stagnation of the European economy. With the arrival of 2025, it is expected that the eurozone will continue to reduce interest rates to address weak economic growth while inflation remains under control.
Soft landing of the US economy creates opportunities, preference for US stocks, Asian and emerging market stocks
Keiko Kondo pointed out that the overall inflation rate in the US has dropped below 3% and is believed to be experiencing an "economic soft landing," creating a good opportunity for the stock market, particularly favoring the overall US stock market. While economic and profit growth in Europe is slowing down, the opposite is happening in emerging markets and Asia, providing attractive entry opportunities for these two regions.
Preference for European government bonds, Asian credit, and local currency bonds in emerging markets
Government bonds showed a strong rebound during the summer market correction, reaffirming their safe-haven asset characteristics. Bonds are expected to play a diversifying role in portfolios in the future, with European government bonds expected to benefit from rate cuts during the cycle, making this asset class attractive due to its diversification benefits.
Keiko Kondo stated that in Asia, strong economic growth, especially in China, India, and Indonesia, could drive performance of Asian credit, with the credit spreads it provides expected to be more attractive than US and European bonds. In addition, the yields of many local currency bonds in emerging markets are very attractive, offering significant returns in 2025.
Private assets have low correlation with other asset classes, allowing for more diversified investment allocations
In recent years, private market assets have been increasingly valued by global and Asian investors, a trend supported by Keiko Kondo. She pointed out the benefits of including such assets in diversified investment portfolios, one of which is their low correlation with other asset classes. Furthermore, the credit spreads of private equity are higher than those of non-investment grade bonds.