Schroder Investment: Central bank policies in various countries tend to support economic resilience towards a "soft landing"
2024-12-02 14:10
Zhitongcaijing
As the Federal Reserve gradually eases its monetary policy while maintaining stable economic growth, Schroder believes there is ample reason to raise expectations for a "soft landing" or a "no landing", with the "soft landing" still being the most confident baseline scenario.
Schroders global investment strategy has shown that central banks and governments around the world are gradually easing concerns about global economic recession. At the same time, the risk of an "economic soft landing" has become more balanced. Over the past month, central banks and governments around the world have released a series of data and policy statements. Overall, these indicate that the possibility of a global "hard landing" has significantly decreased.
Although the details of stimulus measures have not been fully implemented, Schroders global believes that the intention to stabilize the economy is clear. This not only greatly reduces the risk of a global "hard landing", but also provides some space for a "no landing" scenario, provided that commodity prices can be strongly supported. As the Federal Reserve continues to maintain robust economic growth while gradually easing its fiscal policy, Schroders global believes there are sufficient reasons to raise expectations of a "soft landing" or "no landing", with the "soft landing" being the most confident scenario.
Taking all of the above into consideration, active Federal Reserve policies and a relatively stable labor market support Schroders global in appropriately lowering expectations of an economic "hard landing".
Additionally, it should be noted that the latest inflation data in the United States shows that the process of falling inflation has stalled in the short term. Core prices rose by 0.3% monthly, enough to push inflation from 2.1% to 3.1% on a three-month annualized basis. Looking ahead, Schroders global still believes that the trend of falling inflation will continue, but this data serves as a reminder that the process of falling inflation will not be smooth and will still face fluctuations and challenges.
If China implements more economic stimulus measures as announced, Schroders global believes that the global economy will benefit, especially as the world's second largest economy begins to stabilize.
Regarding global bond duration, a moderately positive view is still held. Despite the macro environment becoming relatively unfavorable, market valuations have significantly improved in the past month due to investors digesting the Federal Reserve's more moderate interest rate hike expectations.
In terms of asset allocation, mortgage-backed securities remain the most favored market in September. Sovereign bonds are also favored, with these assets receiving a slight upward adjustment on their score based on valuation considerations.
In terms of corporate credit, preference is still given to European investment-grade corporate bonds over American investment-grade corporate bonds, especially as views on the European economy have improved in the past month. Similarly, there is a preference for the European market in high-yield bonds.