Morgan Stanley Fund: How will the non-ferrous metals perform in a rate cut cycle?
2024-12-02 17:18
Zhitongcaijing
Looking ahead to next year, it is expected that the upward trend of non-ferrous metals will shift from mainly supply-side driven logic this year to demand-side driven logic.
Morgan Stanley Fund stated in a recent article that the global economy is currently in a interest rate reduction cycle, and with the rebound of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), demand is expected to continue to improve, indicating that the industrial economy is in a phase of bottoming out and recovery in the long cycle. Looking ahead to next year, the logic behind the rise in non-ferrous metals prices is expected to shift from being primarily driven by supply-side factors this year to being driven by demand-side factors.
Domestically, policies have shifted since the end of September, and there are expectations for further policy amplifications, which may lead to fundamental improvements. Internationally, the policies implemented by Trump's administration may result in persistent high inflation in the U.S., which could benefit the rise of bulk metals prices. From the supply side, the supply elasticity of copper and aluminum remains relatively small next year: copper concentrate treatment charges are still at low levels, indicating a shortage at the mining end; the operating rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum is above 90%, with a production capacity ceiling of 45 million tons, and the expected increase in new supply next year is not expected to exceed 2%. If there is a strong recovery in demand next year, the supply-demand gap will further widen compared to this year, and industrial metals are expected to be in a state of easy rise and hard fall.
For precious metals, from a long-term perspective, inflation, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical factors are expected to support their continued strength, while in the short term, the gold price is expected to maintain a wide fluctuation for valuation digestion. Equities have performed worse than gold, mainly due to the poor performance of many companies' Q3 earnings realization.
For energy metals, the bottom of lithium prices has been repeatedly confirmed, with cost support on one hand, and many overseas and domestic mines reducing production since Q4, which is conducive to improving the oversupply situation. Short-term prices may show a fluctuating trend along with production scheduling, and the central point of future prices will rely on downstream real restocking dynamics to support an increase. In the medium to long term, the supply-demand fundamentals of lithium may have already bottomed out. As for cobalt, attention should be given to the follow-up implementation of the Congo Gold policy, which may have an impact on the supply side of the industry. Currently, commodities and equities are in the bottom range, focusing on the rebound in equity sectors caused by performance recovery and disruptions in the cobalt supply side.
For minor metals, tungsten, tin, antimony, and rare earths are all strategic metals in China, with good supply-side constraints and fundamentals, often leading to short-term imbalances and significant price increases due to disruptions in the supply side. As for rare earths, the intensification of conflict in Myanmar has increased import supply concerns, leading to a rebound in equities at the bottom. Slowing marginal supply growth may support the trend of rare earth prices. Attention is given to energy-saving motors, wind energy, and the return of price-sensitive demand for applications such as robots, which may boost long-term demand expectations for rare earth magnet materials. In terms of tungsten, prices have stabilized after the decline, waiting for demand recovery, and tungsten prices may return to the upward trend. Regarding tin, short-term prices are under pressure due to macroeconomic influences and rumors of production resumptions in Indonesia, but tin prices have strong cost support, so subsequent attention is given to the semiconductor cycle recovery's impact on tin prices. As for antimony, recently, control of antimony oxide exports has caused differentiation in domestic and international antimony prices, with a price difference of almost 100,000 RMB, and subsequent attention is given to progress in export approvals and the convergence of domestic and international antimony prices.