logo
Login
Register
Schroder: Significant reduction in risk of economic hard landing, view on bonds turning positive
The Schroder Global Unconstrained Fixed Income Investment Team stated that policies of central banks and governments around the world are gradually easing concerns about global economic recession, while at the same time, the risk of an "economic soft landing" has become more balanced.
Schroders global investment in global unconstrained fixed income investment team refers to the gradual easing of concerns about global economic recession by central banks and governments around the world, while at the same time, the risk of an "soft landing" in the economy has become more balanced. Schroders global investment still maintains a moderately positive view on the duration of global bonds. Despite a relatively unfavorable macro environment, valuations have significantly improved in the past month as the investment market has absorbed the Federal Reserve's more moderate rate hike expectations. In terms of regional distribution, Schroders global is relatively cautious about the US bond market and prefers Europe, Australia, and Canada as the macro environment in these markets is more conducive to bond duration performance. At the same time, a slight underweight position is maintained for peripheral countries in Europe mainly because there is almost no room for further narrowing of spreads in these regions. In the past month, central banks and governments around the world have released a series of data and policy statements, which collectively indicate that the possibility of a global "hard landing" has significantly decreased. Although the details of stimulus measures have not yet been fully implemented, the clear intention to stabilize the economy not only significantly reduces the risk of a global "hard landing," but also provides a certain amount of space for a "soft landing" scenario, provided that commodity prices can be strongly supported. As the Federal Reserve gradually eases its monetary policy while maintaining steady economic growth, there are strong reasons to raise expectations of a "soft landing" or a "no landing," with the former still being the most confident scenario. Strong job growth was shown in the October employment data in the US, surpassing market expectations, and further positive data revisions over the past month suggest that the labor market resilience may be stronger than previously expected. This further reduces the pressure of economic recession. Taking all of these factors into consideration, an active Federal Reserve policy and a relatively stable labor market support the expectation that a "hard landing" for the economy is less likely to occur. In addition, it should be noted that the latest inflation data in the US shows that the process of inflation slowing down has stagnated in the short term. Core consumer prices rose by 0.3% month-on-month, pushing the three-month annualized inflation rate from 2.1% to 3.1%. Looking ahead, Schroders global still believes that the trend of declining inflation will continue, but this data reminds the market that the process of inflation decline will not be smooth sailing, and there will still be fluctuations and challenges. If China implements more economic stimulus measures as announced, the global economy is expected to benefit, particularly as the world's second-largest economy moves towards stability. These positive spillover effects will undoubtedly support partners in the Asian region, while the struggling eurozone economy is poised to benefit from China's recovery momentum. Schroders global investment has also turned positive on the UK bond market, as valuations in the past few weeks have significantly improved. From an asset allocation perspective, mortgage-backed securities remain the most favored market in September. Compared to other credit markets, pricing in this sector has become more attractive in the past month, and duration volatility is expected to be relatively controlled, further supporting the performance of mortgage-backed securities. Similarly, sovereign quasi-bonds are also favored, with a slight upward adjustment based on valuation considerations. In terms of corporate credit, European investment-grade corporate bonds are still preferred over US investment-grade corporate bonds, and the view on the European economy has improved over the past month. Valuations for US investment-grade bonds are nearing their lowest levels in the past decade, almost entirely reflecting expectations of an economic "soft landing." In the high-yield bond sector, preference is also given to the European market, as compared to the US, the attractiveness of the US high-yield bond market valuation is limited, and as with investment-grade bonds, valuations have already fully reflected expectations of an economic "soft landing," leaving the spread exposed to multiple risks.
Morgan Asset Management: Bullish on US dollar assets over gold, recommends a stock-bond ratio of 7:3 for aggressive investors.
Morgan Stanley Fund: How will the non-ferrous metals perform in a rate cut cycle?