Morgan Asset Management: Bullish on US dollar assets over gold, recommends a stock-bond ratio of 7:3 for aggressive investors.
2024-12-03 15:22
Zhitongcaijing
Even though Trump's policies may stimulate US inflation to rise again, Longtai still anticipates that the Fed may cut interest rates by another 25 basis points this month. While the market estimates the Fed will only cut rates by 50 basis points next year, he predicts that the rate cut magnitude could reach 1%.
Morgan Asset Management's chief market strategist for the Asia-Pacific region, Xu Changtai, said at a media luncheon that the US's strong dollar policy can attract capital inflows to the US and strengthen the dollar's status as an international reserve currency. He believes that due to the expected strength of the US dollar, it is more favorable to invest in US dollar assets than in gold. He suggests a conservative ratio of 60% stocks to 40% bonds, with the possibility of adjusting to 65% stocks and 35% bonds for more aggressive investors, and even up to 70% stocks and 30% bonds for those with a higher risk tolerance.
Despite the potential for Trump's policies to stimulate inflation in the US, Xu Changtai still expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points this month. While the market predicts a total reduction of 50 points next year, he believes the rate cut could be as much as 1%.
He pointed out that although US President-elect Trump has expressed a desire for a weaker dollar to benefit US exports, his policy directions such as tax cuts and planned tariffs seem likely to stimulate inflation. Trump's recent warning on social media to "BRICS countries" not to challenge the dollar's status with other currencies indicates his actual policy of strengthening the dollar.
As for the performance of the Hong Kong stock market by the end of the year, Xu believes it will be mostly muted. Investors are likely to remain cautious towards investing in Hong Kong and mainland Chinese stocks before Trump officially takes office in mid-January. Additionally, even if policies are announced at the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference next week, it will take time to see their effects. Xu also expressed confidence that Hong Kong's foreign exchange reserves are sufficient to maintain the linked exchange rate system.