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Bonds and gold make a strong comeback! How should Schroder Investment Analysis deal with the challenges of an overvalued stock market?
Schroeder Investments believes that the investment market will have conditions to achieve good returns by 2025, but the challenges faced should not be underestimated. In this environment, adopting a diversified investment strategy across regions and asset classes will be a key factor in strengthening investment portfolios and dealing with future market uncertainties.
Schroders global investment publication states that the investment market is poised to achieve good returns by 2025, but the challenges it faces should not be underestimated. In this environment, adopting a diversified investment strategy across regions and asset classes will be a key factor in enhancing portfolio resilience and addressing future market uncertainty. The bank believes that in the context of investors seeking diversified asset allocation, bonds are experiencing a strong comeback as a source of income, and gold has also become an important store of value. Additionally, the private markets offer diversified options to enhance portfolio resilience, with these assets often being more independent than listed stocks and bonds. For example, real estate and infrastructure investments that provide stable long-term cash flow, or insurance-linked securities (ILS) tied to weather-related risks, can provide support for investment portfolios. Schroders global points out that while the valuation of the S&P 500 index may be high, the valuations of non-U.S. markets and small and mid-cap stocks are more attractive. In the past, stock market returns were mainly driven by the performance of a few large companies, but this trend is changing. The bank believes that there is still room for further expansion in the overall U.S. investment market, especially under President Trump's policies focusing on deregulation and lowering corporate taxes. Outside of the U.S. market, if President Trump fully implements his high tariff policy announced during his campaign, trade will become a major focus. Although such broad tariffs may be difficult to fully implement at a legal level, the associated uncertainty could prompt more U.S. companies to bring operations back locally, potentially boosting economic growth in the U.S. and putting pressure on neighboring countries. However, it is expected that further monetary stimulus measures implemented in non-U.S. markets will partially offset this impact. The bank believes that investors may need to look beyond recent winners to explore other potential opportunities. At the same time, it is important to note that market risks are increasing, especially as positive expectations are gradually reflected in current valuations. With the yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds remaining around 4.5% to 5%, this could limit the speed of stock returns, as higher bond yields not only attract funds out of the stock market, but also increase borrowing costs for businesses, weakening the attractiveness of stocks. Regarding bonds, the current market environment is vastly different from the deflationary and zero interest rate era of the 2010s, and therefore bonds no longer have the negative correlation advantage they commonly had over the past decade. However, bonds are experiencing a strong comeback as a source of income, and the bank still favors including them in portfolios. Diverse fiscal and monetary policies around the world will create cross-market fixed income and currency market investment opportunities. Additionally, strong corporate balance sheets further support the performance of credit markets. In the context of investors seeking diversified asset allocation, the bank also holds an optimistic view on gold. Like bonds, gold not only effectively hedges economic recession risk, but also serves as an important store of value during stagflation and heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Regarding maintaining portfolio resilience, Schroders global points out that the world is currently facing unprecedented disruptive challenges, which are diverse and difficult to predict. For example, the economic damage caused by tariffs and trade frictions continues, while geopoli...
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