Fidelity Funds: Next year, macroeconomic conditions and monetary policies are expected to bring a favorable environment for global stock markets.
2024-12-06 16:14
Zhitongcaijing
Fidelity Funds state that by 2025, both macroeconomic conditions and monetary policy are expected to bring a favorable environment for global stock markets.
Fidelity Funds released a statement stating that by 2025, both the macroeconomic situation and monetary policies are expected to create a favorable environment for global stock markets. The economic cycle is about to enter a new phase, but the influence of geopolitics may intensify throughout the year. The trends that have recently dominated stock prices may continue, but the market will also move in new directions, with growth areas increasing. This brings exciting opportunities for stock investors.
Regarding the US market, Fidelity Funds stated that a Republican victory in the election is likely to strengthen the US's dominant position. Even before the November election, Fidelity anticipated that US corporate profits would grow by over 14% in 2025, surpassing most regions and global averages in terms of growth, return on equity, and net debt levels. This election further convinces the market that the environment in 2025 will favor business, economic growth, and innovation. Although the US may implement high tariffs, leading to increased tension in trade relations between the US and China and posing risks for some industries, the resulting inflation effects may help boost corporate profits and alleviate concerns about overvaluation of companies in the market.
Fidelity Funds advised investors to be more cautious when selecting stocks this year. For example, in the case of artificial intelligence, while the valuations of large tech companies such as Nvidia are controversial and their stock prices continue to hit new highs, they may still rise further. On the other hand, some seemingly unrelated industries and consumers may also benefit. For instance, Apple has made a fortune with smartphones, but the rise of smartphones has driven growth in a range of existing and new businesses. Although less than a third of companies currently incorporate artificial intelligence and machine learning, over 70% of companies have relative plans, indicating that the impact of artificial intelligence on the economy will expand.
Regarding the Japanese market, Fidelity Funds stated that the market sentiment and fundamental indicators are favorable for the Japanese market in 2025. With strong wage growth, inflation is expected to continue, and capital expenditures and shareholder returns will grow steadily. Investors are beginning to explore potential stocks benefiting from corporate governance reforms, leading to an increase in the proportion of component stocks in the TOPIX index that outperform the index.
It is worth noting that if the yen strengthens along with rising interest rates, it may impact company profits in the second half of the year, especially in non-essential consumer goods industries such as automakers and durable goods exporters, where overseas sales account for a higher proportion than domestic sales, the impact will be particularly pronounced.
Regarding the European market, Fidelity Funds mentioned that European industrial and automotive companies have recently issued profit warnings one after another, and sales of non-essential consumer goods companies have also performed poorly. These signs reflect market concerns that weak Chinese demand may severely drag down these stocks. Fidelity's macro team's model also shows that if partial implementation of the tariff policies proposed by the US Republican Party occurs, it could lead to a reduction of up to 0.5 percentage points in GDP for Germany and the eurozone. However, if authorities introduce consistent loose monetary policies, theoretically it should benefit European cyclical stocks, but currently, the cheaper and more defensive option is dividend stocks. In some market sectors, the total return of dividends plus share repurchases can reach as high as 8%, and valuations are more reasonable.
Regarding the Chinese market, Fidelity Funds are optimistic about industries that the Chinese government focuses on supporting, including technology, high-end manufacturing, consumer goods, and healthcare. They believe that the Chinese stock market may be more volatile, and due to policy shifts, the valuations of many companies have rebounded from their lows to reasonable levels. In this vast market, there are certainly stocks with clear prospects for profit growth.