Schroder Investment: The Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory remains unchanged, benefiting the global bond market in a more accommodative interest rate environment.
2024-12-18 14:45
Zhitongcaijing
Schroder Investment Management stated in a post that the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election has already been decided, but investors should not overlook the fact that even during the election period, the US economic growth remains strong.
Schroders Global investment report states that the results of the 2024 US presidential election have been determined, but investors should not overlook the fact that even during the election period, the US economy is still showing strong growth. Therefore, any fiscal policy relaxation will make it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to achieve its target inflation level and increase the risk of the economy not landing smoothly. This will lead to rising bond yields, poor performance of US bonds, and a continued strong US dollar. Fortunately, the market has already begun to react to the post-election economic re-inflation risk, so we have not seen further increases in bond yields recently.
Although fiscal policy may continue to change before Trump officially takes office in the midterm, concerns about the global trade cycle will have an impact on regions such as Europe, leading to a continued decline in the Euro to US dollar exchange rate, and European bond duration will continue to outperform other regions.
The current US macroeconomic indicators point to a higher probability of an economic soft landing, so the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate cut in September and another 25 basis point cut in November are in line with previous expectations. As for whether there will be another rate cut before the end of 2024? Despite market caution regarding economic re-inflation, Schroders Global believes there is a chance of another 25 basis point rate cut in December.
In response to these uncertainties, in terms of bond types, it is still advisable to favor high credit quality investment grade corporate bonds, as these companies are usually better prepared to deal with downturns in the business cycle and benefit from lower operating costs due to falling interest rates. In terms of regions, European valuations are more attractive than those of the US, with a higher potential for bond price increases. Caution is advised when it comes to high yield bonds, as valuations are under pressure, and downside risks need to be monitored if the macroeconomic environment deteriorates.
In the Asian bond market, the performance has been impressive this year due to higher yields and significantly reduced default risk. Asian bonds show promise. Preference is given to financial sectors, banks, and industries that benefit from a high interest rate environment, as well as high credit quality corporate bonds from Australia and Japan. Chinese US dollar bonds require further fiscal stimulus to support a broader economy, especially the real estate market. In the long term, as long as consumer and business confidence recovers, genuine demand can be stimulated, reinforcing market sentiment.
After the US election, investors have shown increased confidence in risky assets, believing that the new US president and government will focus on boosting economic growth, leading to sustained recovery in the US and global stock markets. In contrast, bond investments may be constrained by re-inflation risks, leading to inferior investment valuations. Schroders Global does not agree with this view; in an environment of re-inflation, investors should be concerned about interest rate risk rather than credit risk. Government bonds with high interest rate sensitivity may indeed be affected in terms of bond performance, whereas corporate bonds with optimistic profit outlooks have growth potential, just as buying stocks is based on bullish business growth prospects.
It is expected that a more accommodative interest rate environment will be in place by the end of 2024, benefiting the global bond market. Flexibility in interest rate allocation will be maintained, and investors will patiently wait for more clarity on the intentions of the Trump administration towards Europe.