DWS: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will slow down its pace of interest rate cuts after the December meeting. Future fiscal and trade policies remain the main unknown factors.
2024-12-18 19:42
Zhitongcaijing
Recently, economic data in the United States has been mixed, with the labor market appearing to be weakening while inflation remains stubborn.
DWS's chief US economist Christian Scherrmann commented on the US December FOMC meeting, stating that recent economic data in the US has been mixed, with the labor market appearing to weaken while inflation remains stubborn. The latest November Consumer Price Index (CPI) met expectations, showing a continued slowdown in price increases, although the momentum appears to have weakened in recent months. Despite this, progress has been made in containing inflation, and the possibility of further rate cuts still exists, but it is expected that the Fed will slow down the pace of rate cuts after the December meeting. Additionally, future fiscal and trade policies remain major unknown factors.
Fed Chair Powell explicitly stated in the last meeting not to assume or expect too much, but at least the extension of provisions of the "Tax Cuts and Jobs Act" should be considered in future outlooks. Unlike other policy proposals (such as tax cuts, tariffs, or immigration), lawmakers in Congress seem to have reached a consensus on extending existing stimulus measures. Therefore, households and businesses may anticipate stronger domestic demand, potentially leading to increased hiring or maintaining current levels of consumption.
The Fed will signal that it will take longer to lower rates to a neutral level (expected to be between 3% and 3.5%). Therefore, it is expected that the upcoming economic forecast summary from the Fed will show continued strong economic growth through 2025, with fewer rate cuts and a slight increase in inflation. DWS has revised its rate cut forecast for before the end of 2025 from 5 cuts to 3 (including one in December). In terms of timing, it is expected that the Fed may switch to adjusting rates quarterly in the first half of 2025, then pause the normalization of rate policies in the second half of the year.