Fidelity International: The market will continue to fluctuate in 2025. High-quality stocks and bonds will welcome opportunities for income assets.
2024-12-19 15:27
Zhitongcaijing
In conclusion, the global economic outlook is positive in 2025, the investment market is in a state of crisis with opportunities, market fluctuations caused by uncertainties provide both adjustment risks for overvalued stocks and opportunities for investors to absorb high-quality stock and bond assets.
Fidelity International's Director of Offshore Distribution in Hong Kong and China, Pan Enmei, says that it is foreseeable that the global investment market will continue to be volatile in 2025. However, both the macroeconomic and monetary policies are expected to create a favorable environment for the stock and bond markets, meaning that volatile markets may provide opportunities for investors to invest in high-quality assets.
Looking back at 2024, the US market remained strong, continuously hitting new highs throughout the year, and this upward trend is expected to continue into next year. The main reason for this is the continuous growth in corporate earnings. Prior to the November election, Fidelity expected US corporate earnings to grow by over 14% next year. The market generally believes that a Republican victory will benefit the US business and innovation environment, meaning that currently US stocks are superior in terms of earnings growth, stock buybacks, and debt levels compared to most markets and the global average. This advantage is expected to continue into next year.
Regionally, the outlook for the Japanese market remains optimistic as Japanese companies continue to improve their returns through ongoing restructuring. In addition, India and Indonesia are expected to benefit from long-term economic growth trends. India benefits from population growth and investments in infrastructure and manufacturing. The ASEAN region as a whole benefits from the long-term trend of supply chain diversification and increasing direct investments from around the world.
In terms of industries, companies related to artificial intelligence and healthcare continue to benefit from the long-term growth potential of the industry. The manufacturing, financial, and value stocks in the US are expected to benefit from new government policies. Meanwhile, tech, high-end manufacturing, consumer, and healthcare industries in mainland China are expected to benefit from China's national policies.
Pan Enmei states that geopolitical risks and other uncertainties will continue to cause market volatility. Considering the high valuations in some popular industries, investors should carefully select stocks based on fundamentals and adhere to valuation discipline, considering high-quality stocks that can provide sustainable dividends. In addition to dividend stocks, given that the Fed may slow down its interest rate cuts next year, absorbing defensive investment-grade US dollar bonds, locking in substantial interest on short-term global bonds, and providing attractive interest differentials in Asian high-yield bonds can help increase portfolio returns and reduce the impact of market volatility on overall portfolio returns.
Pan Enmei believes that in 2025, the global economic outlook is positive and there are opportunities amid market uncertainties. The market volatility caused by uncertainties not only brings adjustment risks to overvalued stocks but also provides investors with opportunities to invest in high-quality stock and bond assets.