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Anben: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in March next year, provided that inflation continues to decline.
Against the backdrop of increasing trade tariffs, Anben is taking a strategic approach to managing investments in emerging markets.
Zhang Dongyue, head of the Asia-Pacific team of experts in multi-asset and solutions investments at Amundi, said that despite the 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this morning, Fed Chairman Powell still maintained a hawkish tone considering the recent strong short-term inflation and weakened labor market risks. These signals reinforce the view that the Fed will pause interest rate adjustments in January to slow down the pace of easing. Amundi expects a rate cut in March, provided that inflation continues to cool. The bank believes that the risk leans towards reducing rate adjustments, especially if the Trump administration makes unexpected moves in the early stages of its governance. Given the slight change in the Fed's tone, Amundi expects increased market volatility in 2025 due to potential policy shifts by the Trump administration. Additionally, the benefits of relaxed regulation and a more favorable environment for business activities will unleash capital allocation and improve productivity. Due to a healthy labor market, expansion in artificial intelligence-related capital expenditures, and enhanced capital markets and trading activities under relaxed regulations, the bank expects the U.S. market to remain resilient. However, Trump's announcement of potentially imposing a 25% tariff on all products from Mexico and Canada could lead to increasing trade tariffs. Against the backdrop of escalating trade tariffs, Amundi is adopting strategic policies to manage investments in emerging markets. The bank sees the Fed's rate cut as beneficial for emerging markets; and considering the fiscal stimulus measures in the U.S. and the continued strength of the U.S. dollar, inflation may have a higher chance of being stickier than expected, creating a conflicting relationship between these two considerations.
Bank of America: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will decrease interest rates by 0.25% in the first and second quarters of next year.
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