Bank of America: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will decrease interest rates by 0.25% in the first and second quarters of next year.
2024-12-19 17:06
Zhitongcaijing
The Federal Reserve will not end the current rate-cutting cycle after two cuts next year, but will instead extend the pace of rate cuts.
Claudio Irigoyen, head of global economic research at Bank of America, expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 0.25% in the first and second quarters of next year, totaling 0.5%. As for the second half of next year, it will depend on whether the Trump administration's tariffs and tax cuts will stimulate inflation. However, he estimates that the Fed will not end this round of rate cuts after two cuts next year, but will extend the pace of rate cuts.
Irigoyen believes that Trump hopes to reduce federal spending to lower the fiscal deficit, partially offsetting the impact of reduced federal government revenue from tax cuts. However, he thinks that reducing the deficit will not be easy. He expects global economic growth this year to be 3.1%, increasing to 3.2% next year. In the U.S., GDP growth is forecasted to be 2.7% this year, slowing down to 2.4% next year, and further to 2.1% in 2026. As for inflation (CPI), he estimates that the U.S. inflation rate will be 2.9% this year, decreasing to 2.5% next year, and further dropping to 2.3% in 2026.