The research team at Barclays published a research report on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in December, stating that the FOMC will cut rates by 25 basis points and indicate that the pace of future rate cuts will slow down, suggesting a possible pause in rate cuts in January. The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) shows two rate cuts in 2025 and two more in 2026, with inflation expectations rising significantly, and slight improvements in economic growth and the labor market. Currently, the median is in line with Barclays' expectations. The report stated that as expected by the market, the FOMC lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points, bringing rates closer to the neutral level believed by the authorities, but conveyed an overall hawkish tone through statements, new projections, and press conferences. The statement from this meeting, considering additional adjustments in terms of degree and time, shows that the Fed plans to slow down the pace of rate cuts, with a possible pause in rate cuts at the January meeting. The Committee reiterated that the risks to achieving employment and inflation goals are roughly balanced. The new Summary of Economic Projections significantly raised inflation expectations, with the median core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation expectation increasing by 0.3 percentage points to 2.5% in 2025, with increases of 0.2 percentage points in 2024 and 2026, as well as significantly increased upward inflation risks. Some participants factored in the impact of increased tariffs into their forecasts, while others did not. Additionally, the Summary of Economic Projections shows stronger median forecasts for real GDP growth and unemployment rates in 2024 and 2025 compared to September. The dot plot shows an increase of 50 basis points in the median for 2025 and 2026 due to stronger than expected inflation. Currently, the median for 2025 is 3.9%, indicating two rate cuts of 25 basis points next year, followed by two more in 2026 and one in 2027, with a long-term median increase of 0.1 percentage point to 3.0%. During the press conference, Federal Reserve Chair Powell emphasized that future actions will be more proactive, and whether further rate cuts will be considered will depend on the progress of inflation levels and continued strength in the labor market. As expected, the FOMC did not issue a new announcement on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and lowered the overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) rate to the minimum of the federal funds rate target range. Barclays maintains its previous baseline forecast, expecting the FOMC to cut rates only twice next year, in March and June, each time by 25 basis points; it is expected that in the second half of 2025, due to higher import tariffs and stricter immigration control measures, core PCE inflation levels will rise again. The bank expects the FOMC to continue cutting rates around mid-2026, predicting two rate cuts that year, each by 25 basis points, bringing the target rate range to a moderately tightened 3.25-3.50%. The median for 2025 and 2026 is currently consistent with forecasts.