Tiger Securities (Hong Kong) Research Director Chen Qingwei stated that he holds a cautious attitude towards the future trend of the US stock market next year, as the current valuation of US stocks is at historical highs, and whether its profit growth can be sustained is crucial. The driving factors of future US stock earnings should be viewed in both the short and long term. Tiger Securities (Hong Kong) believes that there may be a phase of a bear market within a long-term bull market in the US stock market next year, or a drop of over 30%. In the short term, there are high expectations for several measures introduced by Trump after taking office, but the current policies have not been implemented yet. Regardless of whether it is tax cuts or deregulation measures, they will increase the US fiscal deficit. Trump may ultimately compensate for the deficit through policies such as imposing tariffs and government layoffs. Therefore, Tiger Securities (Hong Kong) believes that the promotion effect of Trump's new policies on corporate profit growth may not meet market expectations when they are fully implemented. However, with the advancement of AI technology revolution, there may be a long-term improvement in US productivity. Next year, AI investment will gradually penetrate the application end, and the profit growth of large tech stocks is likely to spread to more vertical application fields benefiting companies and disrupt some traditional business models. Tiger Securities (Hong Kong) recommends that aggressive investors focus on changes in market profit expectations and be flexible in their strategies when investing in US stocks. They should also actively embrace companies that will significantly improve their operational efficiency due to the emergence of AI Agents in their business models, as well as companies with a strong moat in the AI industry chain. Since US bond rates are still at a high level in nearly 20 years, conservative investors may consider diversifying funds allocated to the US stock market to the US bond market or other assets. Regarding the trends of the Hong Kong and A-share markets next year, Tiger Securities (Hong Kong) has a relatively positive view. Because the central government has designated "expanding domestic demand to address effective demand insufficiency" as a top priority for mainland China's economic work next year, and for the first time, the conference mentioned "stabilizing the property and stock markets," unprecedentedly placing the importance of the stock market on an equal footing with the property market. This means that countercyclical stimulation policies will continue to be introduced, with further reinforcement if the effects are not significant enough, which is expected to prolong the improvement in market sentiment. Tiger Securities (Hong Kong) advises aggressive investors to increase investments in the technology and internet sectors necessary for national industrial upgrading when market sentiment is positive, while investments in the consumer sector should focus more on the direction of policy stimulus, such as the "subsidy for replacing old items" in the fourth quarter that had a significant promotional effect on home appliance consumption. For conservative investors, high dividend stocks and bonds can still be selected for income generation, with considerations of investing in technology stocks when market sentiment is very pessimistic. The bank stated that in the current high-interest rate environment, bonds are a more ideal asset allocation. Previously, US residential real estate mortgage bonds affected by high interest rates may have better opportunities with further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Bitcoin is also worth noting, as Trump previously mentioned considering including it in strategic currency reserves, but the virtual currency has high volatility, so it is not advisable to allocate a high proportion to balance risks. Gold remains the preferred asset for hedging by central banks of emerging market countries, but there may not necessarily be more severe geopolitical conflicts in 2025. Further upside for gold requires an unexpected economic downturn, combined with a second inflation expectation rise brought about by a complete shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Therefore, gold may only be suitable for a small allocation as a hedge asset next year.