European Natural Resources Fund: The Fed will cut interest rates twice next year, and there may be a significant decline in the global financial markets from March to May next year.
2024-12-25 14:27
Zhitongcaijing
Li Gangfeng said that there may be a big fluctuation (fall) in the global financial markets in March-May 2025, and suggested gradually reducing risky assets during these months to protect gains.
Li Gangfeng, a special analyst for the European Natural Resources Fund Commodity Discovery, said that last week the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected by the market, but indicated that it may only cut rates twice in 2025 (predicted to be 4 times next year in September), and will closely monitor the trend of inflation in the United States. On the other hand, Powell stated that based on the legal restrictions on the assets that the Federal Reserve can invest in, digital currencies are not included; Trump said that the United States should sell gold to buy digital currencies, which Powell's actions are favorable to gold.
There may be large fluctuations (declines) in the global financial markets in March to May 2025. It is recommended to gradually reduce risky assets during these months and preserve profits.
Li Gangfeng stated that no one can change the historical trend of the market's concerns about the US balance sheet and the US dollar. During the previous term when Trump was president, national debt increased by $7.8 trillion, combined with tax cuts and unrestricted spending, resulting in him setting a historical record as the third US president with the most severe fiscal deficit growth during his tenure. However, from an investment perspective, fundamentals are not important, what is important is what the market currently believes in. The market believes that if Trump is re-elected, the US dollar will rise, bond prices will fall, commodities will fall, and US stocks and digital currencies will rise.
Li Gangfeng previously predicted that if Trump is re-elected, the market may give him a six-month honeymoon period, so the strength of US stocks and digital currencies may be able to be maintained until around the end of April next year; in terms of metals, unless geopolitical tensions rise again, perhaps the short to medium-term peak has passed. According to historical statistics, the average return of gold in the first year of each US president's term is only a little over 1%, with the first year of the four-year term often being the worst performing.