Jupiter Asset Management: If US inflation falls quickly enough, it will be beneficial for the bond investment environment.
2024-12-25 15:44
Zhitongcaijing
Jupiter Asset Management believes that short-term interest rate fluctuations are not as important as the speed of decline in inflation. If the drop in inflation is fast enough, it will create a favorable environment for bond investments.
The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates in three consecutive meetings, totaling a 1% decrease. Jupiter Asset Management believes that short-term interest rate changes are not as important as the speed of inflation decline, which could create a favorable environment for bond investments. Matthew Morgan, Head of Bond Investments at Jupiter Asset Management, pointed out that the reason for not being concerned about the extent of interest rate cuts is due to inflation concerns. He stated that the world is currently experiencing a continuous slowdown in inflation, with pressures of downward inflation expected to persist in both Europe and the United States.
He believes that the current biggest issue is the neutral interest rate the lower the neutral interest rate, the higher the yield from government bonds. Furthermore, there is almost no consensus on the definition of the neutral interest rate. In the current dot plot of the Fed, some officials believe the neutral interest rate is below 2.5%, while others expect it to reach 4%, making the situation quite interesting.
Matthew Morgan also mentioned that if the US job market deteriorates, causing investors to become increasingly concerned about consumer spending and wages, it could lead to a scenario of an economic hard landing. In that case, interest rates could also significantly decrease, providing profit opportunities from government bonds.
He emphasized that the market currently needs to pay attention to job data. In fact, Fed Chairman Powell has shifted focus from inflation to the job market, which is actually quite unstable. The Phillips curve has been triggered, and although this does not necessarily mean an economic recession is imminent, history often repeats itself, so the market must take this seriously. Job data clearly indicates a worsening labor market, and historically, when the job market deteriorates, the economy experiences a hard landing.
Regarding the stock market, he mentioned that after the US initiates interest rate cuts, stock market trends often worsen after a period of time. Historically, the Fed has often tightened monetary policy for too long, and then started cutting interest rates too late, leading to economic downturns despite successfully controlling inflation. It is uncertain whether a similar situation will occur again at this stage, as history does not always repeat itself.