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Value Partners: Expect mainland China and Hong Kong stocks to gradually recover next year.
In Huili Fund releases 2025 Market Outlook Report.
Huili Fund released its market outlook report for 2025, stating that due to the uncertain pace of interest rate cuts in the United States in 2025, Hong Kong-listed stocks, especially those sensitive to interest rates, are expected to be under pressure in the short term. While A-shares may have higher valuations, they may be more attractive compared to offshore stocks. Overall, mainland China and Hong Kong stocks are expected to gradually recover in 2025, mainly because profits may have bottomed out under the low base effect. Huili Fund stated that although concerns about US inflation and recession have subsided this year, investors should still actively address various global uncertainties, including the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the outcome of the US presidential election in November, and escalating geopolitical instability in the Middle East. Despite the varied performances of markets around the world, Asian financial markets have shown relative strength this year. Regarding the Japanese stock market, Huili Fund believes that with a strong US dollar, the Japanese yen will weaken further, potentially driving the Japanese stock market higher. However, potential tariff threats may offset this impact. Weak public support for the Prime Minister (despite being re-elected) may lead to uncertainty in tax and economic reform policies. Nevertheless, the Bank of Japan will proceed with caution in terms of raising interest rates. In addition, Huili Fund maintains an optimistic attitude towards technology-intensive markets in Taiwan, China, as it expects the artificial intelligence chip cycle to continue growing at least through the first half of next year. For the South Korean stock market, Huili Fund points out that due to the potential impact of US tariff policies on Korean automobile exports, relevant data may remain volatile. Additionally, the memory chip cycle nearing its peak presents challenges, coupled with the possibility of the Federal Reserve delaying interest rate cuts. The South Korean government's efforts to support the economy through rate cuts will become more difficult. In South Asia (ASEAN + India), Huili Fund believes that countries with strong local economic growth, such as India, are less likely to be affected by tariff threats. However, in the current situation of uncertainty regarding the pace of interest rate cuts in the United States, where interest rates may remain higher for a longer period, Southeast Asian countries hoping to support their economies through rate cuts will face greater challenges.
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