Recently, Morgan Stanley Fund released an article stating that in the outlook for the bond market in 2025, the overall yield is likely to remain in the "single digit" range with increased volatility. The credit bond market is expected to maintain a tight balance in supply overall, with different varieties experiencing varying trends. Asset shortage may become a norm, as bank asset allocation demand increases due to debt replacement and bond net increase contraction. Overall, bond investments in 2025 will emphasize allocation, and investing against the supply rhythm fluctuations may be a better strategy. In 2025, the trend of the broad risk-free interest rate is expected to continue to decrease, but there may be some fluctuations in pace. Under an active fiscal policy background, the deficit rate may increase, and the issuance scale and pace of special bonds and special national bonds are likely to expand, affecting the bond market direction in boosting domestic demand. Monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, with expectations of reserve requirement and interest rate cuts. In the external environment, trade friction or escalation may lead to a global decline in risk appetite, which may have a short-term impact on the bond market in China, but long-term trends will continue to be influenced by domestic policies. On the price side, CPI is expected to show a mild rise, with possible increased exchange rate fluctuations. On the supply side, government bond issuance pressure may increase, but central bank support is expected to alleviate the impact. On the demand side, banks and insurance companies will remain important forces in allocation, with large banks continuing to buy national bonds, while rural commercial banks will play a stabilizing role. In 2024, the bond market as a whole presented a complex and changing situation, with both interest rate bonds and credit bond markets having their own characteristics. In terms of interest rate bond market, the trend can be divided into three stages. In the first quarter, due to weak fundamentals and policy implementation expectations, interest rate cuts and reserve requirement cuts stimulated a market rally, leading to accelerated interest rate declines. From April to September, disruptions from central bank guidance and policy expectations caused 10-year Treasury bond rates to rebound multiple times, gradually shifting downwards, with events such as real estate policies and special bond issuance causing interest rate fluctuations. From October to the end of the year, as market expectations changed due to policy implementation, monetary policy shifted from cautious to moderately loose, leading to interest rate fluctuations after a period of low volatility, with the 10-year Treasury bond yield dropping below 2.0% to 1.7%. The yield curve shifted downward as a whole with a steepening trend. Looking at the credit bond market, there is an overall asset shortage trend. Under pressure from land finance, profits from urban investment projects continued to decline, and government control over debt led to a decrease in new urban investment financing, causing traditional credit extension from small and medium-sized banks to remain relatively low. In this context, credit spreads continued to decrease. In recent years, institutional behavior research has become a top priority. This year, the changes in wealth management scale have shown phase characteristics. In the first half of the year, there was a significant increase in wealth management scale, partly due to sufficient capital gains since the beginning of the year, attractive product yields, and clear advantages over deposits and equity assets, forming a positive feedback mechanism. At the same time, the manual replenishment interest policy implemented in April led to the conversion of deposits into wealth management liabilities, further driving the expansion of wealth management scale. The outstanding wealth management scale in the first half of the year increased significantly from 26.8 trillion yuan at the end of the previous year to 28.53 trillion yuan at the end of June, showing a significant increase compared to the average of the same period over the past three years. However, starting in August, frequent market adjustments and redemption pressures weakened the attractiveness of fixed-income assets, combined with strong incentives for bank deposits to return, leading to a weakening of the wealth management liability side. Overall, the spill-over of redemption pressure is relatively controllable, with no continuous and significant decline in scale beyond seasonal patterns, showing that the wealth management market still has a certain degree of resilience in the midst of volatility. Looking ahead to 2025, under the control background of wealth management smoothing mechanisms, fluctuations in net asset value may lead to increased redemption fluctuations, which may in turn increase the volatility of credit spreads.