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MSCI: Technology and trade will affect the stock market situation in 2025.
Ashley Lester, Chief Research Officer of MSCI, mentioned that technology-driven growth, especially in the development of artificial intelligence, will continue to impact market trends.
Ashley Lester, Chief Research Officer at MSCI, mentioned in the latest report that technology-driven growth, particularly in the development of artificial intelligence, will continue to influence the market direction. A few large-cap American stocks, especially those related to artificial intelligence concepts, dominate the global stock market value, bringing significant returns. Due to strong profit growth expectations, these stocks have a high valuation premium, but their attractiveness is being questioned as spending increases and expected growth slows down. Geopolitical and technological regional disparities have deepened, with US tariff policies exacerbating uncertainty. MSCI's research shows that 20% of global corporate income is vulnerable to policy impacts. US tech companies' service-based business models may be shielded from the exacerbating effects of trade protectionism, while smaller emerging markets face higher risk exposure and potential income impacts. Asia leads the pace of energy transition China has long been a major driver of energy consumption growth in Asia. China is vigorously developing renewable energy, investing heavily in solar and wind energy, and steadily increasing its use of natural gas. For investors, even if their portfolios have limited exposure in terms of geography or industry to the Asian energy market or commodities, the chain reaction triggered by the energy transition trend will have far-reaching implications and will continue to be reflected in final products and supply chains. Geopolitical tensions and differences in investor views on global energy transition may hinder climate action, disrupt supply chains, and increase transition costs. MSCI's Climate Value-at-Risk model shows that the physical risks triggered by extreme warming scenarios may have a significant impact on stock returns. Private markets are slowly recovering Since 2021, private asset investors have faced numerous challenges. Rapid changes in interest rates have forced them to reevaluate asset pricing and reassess diversified asset allocation strategies. The widening bid-ask spreads for certain strategies have increased uncertainty in asset valuation, leading to stalled trading. Since 2022, the exit multiple for investments in the mergers and acquisitions sector has been smaller than the valuation multiple for holding investments. The differences are greater in the US, while they are relatively smaller in other global markets. There are significant industry differences in the private equity space in different regions around the world. In particular, private equity funds in the US tend to invest more in the information technology field. In the global real estate sector, since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the lag in the private market has been particularly pronounced, with public market price movements leading significantly. The rebound in prices and transactions in the private real estate market in the European region is more significant than in the US and Asia-Pacific regions. US policies may widen economic disparities Higher tariffs along with potential trade tensions could drag down global economic growth and exacerbate US inflation. The main impact of tariffs on the Eurozone may weaken business confidence, impact long-term investment decisions, and exacerbate existing economic challenges, which is consistent with the decline in Eurozone government bond yields since the US election.
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