Morgan Stanley Fund: AI Field High Congestion Focus on Large-Cap Growth Direction under Valuation Repair Major Logic
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2025-02-24 07:28
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Zhitongcaijing
Morgan Stanley Fund believes that, in the medium to long term, the focus of A-shares should still be on the direction of AI, but in the short term, its performance has been very consistent and crowded. In addition, the focus is on the direction of the overall market growth under the theme of valuation repair.
Morgan Stanley Fund believes that in the medium to long term, the A-share market will continue to focus on the direction of artificial intelligence (AI), but in the short term, its performance has been very consistent and overcrowded. In addition, the fund is focusing on the direction of market growth under the logic of valuation repair. In specific sectors, companies with the ability to go global, high-end manufacturing, and industries benefiting from domestic consumption stimulus policies such as automobiles, home appliances, and consumer electronics are all directions worth paying attention to.
Morgan Stanley Fund stated that based on last week's performance, the overall market has further warmed up. The recent private enterprise symposium has been held, releasing important signals to promote the healthy and high-quality development of private enterprises. This has further boosted market confidence, especially encouraging continued enthusiasm for investing in technology stocks. However, the characteristics of the stock market game with existing funds are still present, and the gains in traditional industries are not significant.
Overall, several recent events have jointly driven the market's strength. The private enterprise symposium has sent out positive signals supporting the development of private economy, encouraging private enterprises to strengthen independent innovation. The concentration of technology in private enterprises participating in the symposium has significantly increased. xAI released Grok3, DeepSeek released NSA, making progress in cost reduction and stimulating continuous development of the AI hotspot. Alibaba's capital expenditure guidance greatly exceeded expectations, with expected infrastructure investment in cloud and AI over the next three years surpassing the total of the past decade. The reevaluation of Chinese assets is underway, but it is more prominent in the short term in the Hong Kong stock market.
Looking at the static PEs, the S&P 500 is at 28.1 times earnings, while the CSI A500 is at 14.8 times earnings, showing a continuous widening valuation gap in recent years; the possibility of future convergence is higher. The Hong Kong stock market has seen significant growth this year, almost the best performing market globally, likely due to inflows of southbound capital and foreign investment. On one hand, southbound capital has been continuously flowing into the Hong Kong stock market this year, and on the other hand, overseas funds are reallocating global assets, flowing back into Hong Kong stocks from other emerging markets.
Correspondingly, the possibility of capital outflow from the U.S. stock market is increasing. Recently, the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index has dropped, some investment banks have started to revise down U.S. economic growth expectations, and the performance of the U.S. dollar index is relatively weak. These factors provide a favorable environment for capital inflows into Chinese assets.